Researchers from China developed a new nomogram that can predict disease prognosis in gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs). The nomogram combines information about the site of the tumor, size of the lesions, mitotic rate, Ki-67 index, intracranial necrosis, and age of the patient.

According to the researchers, the nomogram is “clinically feasible” when the recurrence rate following surgery is more than 5%. It is currently not possible to quantify the risk of disease recurrence in individual patients with GIST because there are many staging systems and different risk indicators.

Currently, the size and location of the tumor and the mitotic rate are the most commonly considered factors predicting disease prognosis.


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The study is published in the World Journal of Gastrointestinal Surgery.

To identify risk factors associated with the recurrence of GISTs following surgery, a team of researchers led by Cheng Wang from the Department of Gastrointestinal Tumor Surgery, The Affiliated Hospital of Qinghai University, in China developed and internally validated a new model. This model also included Ki-67, tumor intratumoral necrosis, and age-related indicators as factors predicting disease prognosis.

Read more about the prognosis of GIST

The researchers reported that their model presented perfect discrimination with a reliable c index of 0.836 and a high c index value of 0.714. The area under the curve was 0.704, and the receiver operating characteristic curve indicated good predictive value.

“Comprehensive assessment of patient outcomes will assist in guiding individualized treatment,” the authors concluded.

GISTs are rare soft-tissue tumors that develop from the nerve cells located in the wall of the gastrointestinal tract and account for around 1% of all gastrointestinal tumors. The 5-year survival rate of patients with GIST varies between 32% and 93% depending on the stage of the disease at diagnosis and other factors.

Reference

Guan SH, Wang Q, Ma XM, et al. Development of an innovative nomogram of risk factors to predict postoperative recurrence of gastrointestinal stromal tumors. World J Gastrointest Surg. 2022;27;14(9):940-949. doi:10.4240/wjgs.v14.i9.940