Researchers developed a nomogram that is able to predict survival in patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) of all stages and published their results in the Journal of Clinical and Translational Hepatology.
This new prognostic model can help stratify the risk of patients before treatment and therefore help doctors and patients in their treatment choices. The nomogram is based on imaging data and serum biomarkers at diagnosis.
More research is now necessary to validate the prognostic capacity of their new model, the authors said. To develop the nomogram, the team led by Ning Zhang, PhD, from Chinese PLA General Hospital in Beijing analyzed 442 patients with iCCA (median age, 55 years) registered between July 2007 and December 2019. The diagnoses were confirmed based on pathology, and the researchers followed the patients until June 30, 2020.
Read more about the prognosis of cholangiocarcinoma
Within the follow-up period, 337 patients died. The researchers calculated that the median survival of the patients was 11.6 months and that the 1-, 3- and 5-year survival rates were 48.3%, 22.7%, and 16.2%, respectively.
The researchers also identified 10 factors associated with overall survival in these patients. These included the presence of multiple tumors, whether lymph nodes were involved, and whether the disease invaded the vasculature and metastasized to distant locations. Other factors associated with overall survival were decreased albumin and iron levels and elevated levels of lactate dehydrogenase, fibrinogen, cancer antigen (CA) 125, and CA 19-9.
The nomogram “achieved a Harrel’s c-statistic of 0.758,” the authors reported. This, they said, is “significantly higher than the 0.582 of the [tumor, node, metastasis] stage alone.”
The nomogram predicted the median survival rates of patients in the low-, medium-, and high-risk subgroups to be 35.6, 12.1, and 6.2 months, respectively.
Zhou SN, Lu SS, Ju DW, et al. A new prognostic model covering all stages of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma. J Clin Transl Hepatol. 2022;10(2):254-262. doi:10.14218/JCTH.2021.00099